A Pakistan-mediated ceasefire framework, quietly circulated overnight between Washington and Tehran, is emerging as the most serious attempt yet to halt the conflict, with proposals that could immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stabilize global energy routes.
According to sources familiar with the negotiations, the United States and Iran have received a two-stage proposal that begins with an immediate ceasefire, followed by a comprehensive settlement within 15 to 20 days.
Pakistan Steps In With ‘Islamabad Accord’
The plan, informally referred to as the “Islamabad Accord,” is being coordinated through Pakistan, which has taken a central role as the primary communication channel between both sides. A memorandum of understanding is expected to be finalized electronically if initial terms are accepted.
Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has been in continuous contact with senior officials including US Vice President JD Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, signaling an unusually intense level of overnight diplomacy.
One source directly involved in the talks said, “All elements need to be agreed today,” underscoring the urgency surrounding the proposal.
Two Pakistani officials also confirmed that Iran has not yet committed to the proposal despite intensified outreach at both civilian and military levels.
Ceasefire First, Final Deal Within Weeks
The proposal builds on earlier discussions involving US, Iranian and regional mediators around a 45-day ceasefire window. However, this updated framework significantly shortens the timeline.
Under the plan, a ceasefire would take effect immediately, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with a 15 to 20 day window to finalize a broader agreement.
The final phase is expected to include Iranian commitments related to nuclear activity in exchange for sanctions relief and access to frozen assets, though there has been no official confirmation from either Washington or Tehran.
Strait of Hormuz at the Center of Global Risk
At the heart of the negotiations is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil routes. Disruptions in the waterway have already triggered volatility across global energy markets.
Traders and policymakers are closely watching the situation, as even short-term instability has pushed fuel prices higher and complicated inflation outlooks in the United States.
Iran has previously insisted on guarantees that any ceasefire would be permanent, reflecting concerns over past agreements that failed to prevent renewed conflict.
Markets React as Pressure Builds
Financial markets have begun responding to the uncertainty. Gold prices, after an initial drop, recovered slightly as reports of ceasefire talks eased immediate fears, while rising energy prices continue to fuel inflation concerns.
Market participants say the situation reflects a broader shift, where geopolitical risk is now directly influencing both commodity prices and monetary policy expectations.
A Narrow Window Before Escalation
What makes this moment particularly critical is the compressed timeline. Unlike earlier proposals centered on a longer ceasefire, the current plan aims to deliver immediate de-escalation while forcing a final settlement within weeks.
At the same time, military options remain on standby, with US pressure intensifying under a rapidly approaching deadline.
With mediators warning that time is nearly exhausted, the coming hours are likely to determine whether diplomacy succeeds or the region moves toward a broader and more damaging escalation.
